CausesAl-Shabab is currently in power because of Somalia's failed infrastructure which has not been fixed for decades, and combined with recent disasters, has enhanced their current position of power. This deadly combination of long-term and short-term causes has given al-Shabab a dominant grasp over most of Somalia.
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Long Term Causes
Cultural divides have been turning Somalis against each other ever since gaining their independence in the 60s. These divides have developed over time to eventually to form clans, which play a huge role in the civil war cycle Somalia is trapped in. Also, Somalia is largely Muslim due to their location in relation to the Middle East, the area where Islam is the major religion. This makes Somalia a dwelling for jihad and other extreme ideas originating from different interpretations of the Koran because jihad can be used to justify violence. They have been in civil war and consequently poverty ever since because of this radical violence and the destructiveness it holds. These long term causes have built on each other for over 25 years, which is why Somalia has a failed infrastructure. These factors have created countless numbers of refugees over the years, and has destroyed millions of lives.
Cultural Divides |
Somalia was originally the two separate colonies of Italian Somaliland and British Somaliland, and in 1960, was merged into one country and left on their own to shape their new country as they pleased. However, these cultural divides made Somalia almost doomed to fail from the beginning because an outbreak of civil war erupted across Somalia. This was due to disagreements over the way Somalia should be run. Over the course of nine years, civil war tore the country apart as everyone wanted power for themselves, until Siad Barre took control by force. Even under his rule, clans still fought and to this day still do. Clans are formed by wealthy and resourced men and their extended families with common interests who band together to fight other clans for power. This shows how the cultural divides created by Italian and British colonies are still ever present to this day after decades of fighting. (CultureGrams, 16)
These pictures shown how clans make up Somalia and how lawless they are as they seep between different countries. Note how al-Shabab's territory (as seen in the last page) has an identical shape to the Hawiye and Rahanwayn clans' territory. This is because these are the members of the United Somali Congress who won the war against Siad Barre's forces who then disbanded with the Somali National Movement (Isaac and Darod clans). While the ashes of the war settled, al-Shabab rose from the dust and took control of this region, leaving the clans their territory, but controlling it using these clans as proxies to surround Mogadishu. (CultureGrams, 16)
Violence Leads to Radicalization
A resulting factor that has played into Somalia’s current refugee problem is that different clans in Somalia have used jihad as an excuse to pillage and kill. In Somalia, 99% of people are Muslim, and a small percentage of these people have interpreted the Koran in the way that provokes violence or religious war, jihad. Just enough people have banded together over the years to form terrorist organizations who have justified their crimes through jihad. Yesterday it was al-Qaeda, today, it is al-Shabab who does this to the Somali people, and because of this many Somalis are suffering. Because many people’s lives in Somalia are shaped by violence, this is all they know. Because of this, they have a radical interpretation of the Koran, and that is why jihad is common amongst clans in Somalia. (Hansen, 13)
The Resulting Poverty
Somalia has been in a state of war for over 25 years, and because of all this conflict, the overwhelming majority of Somalis who do not benefit from the war and do not aquire power do not get necessities such as food and water. The warlords and clan leaders have amassed and kept their resources for themselves, which has killed Somalia’s once flourishing economy. This domino effect has left Somalia in a poverty vacuum in which they have been struggling in since it became a country. This combination of factors has built on each other and has ripped Somalia apart from its roots, which is why they have struggled to recover from various crises for 25 years they have amassed. (Hansen, 13)
Short Term Causes
Al-Shabab’s dominance over Somalia is the current cause of a new stream of refugees because the power vacuum cycle has left them in charge of Somalia. Al-Shabab’s dominance has also been enhanced by the recent famine, which left the Somali people desperate, poor, and starving. Compared to everyone else in the country, al-Shabab was faring very well because of their power and wealth, renewing their purpose and energy, as well as a sense of power. Al-Shabab is also in control over most of Somalia because a lack of opposition from mainly the government, but also because of an underfunded peacekeeping group designed to fight them, AMISOM, or the African Mission in Somalia. (Hansen, 13)
The Power Vacuum Cycle
Throughout Somalia’s history, there have been various leaders or groups who have risen and fallen from power. When they fall, new ones rise and take this power, which I call the “power vacuum cycle.” This power vacuum is due to the prolonged civil war that presides over Somalia (As you may remember, this is a long term cause that is resulting in a short term cause as well, the cultural divides.) They have caused this civil war, and clearly shows this domino effect that has landed Somalia in its current state; cultural divides have caused the war, the war has created the power vacuum in which al-Shabab now resides. (CultureGrams, 16)
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Al-Shabab's Motives
Al-Shabab is a terrorist organization that has a strong affiliation with al-Qaeda. They kill, rape and brutalize their victims, which ensures their power over Somalia. Al-Shabab translates to "The Youth," because many of its members are only teenagers who have been picked up by this organization. Al-Shabab wants to see the Somali government, as well as any other type of government burned to the ground. They do not accept foreign help and do not care who gets caught in the crossfire of their terrorism. In a recent attack to disrupt the 2016 election, al-Shabab deployed a suicide bomber to blow up part of a port in Mogadishu, Al-Shabab's military spokesperson, Sheikh Abdiasis Abu Musab said: "We targeted [the police] because they had been trained to provide security at so-called elections." This shows how al-Shabaab will stop at nothing to destroy the Somali government and disrupt peace. (Somalia News and Information Center, 16) |
Famine
Al-Shabab has gained power recently because Somalia was hit by a huge famine in 2011. This overwhelmed Somalia and the rest of the world who came to their aid, as millions of people did not have substantial amounts of food. Many Somalis who were affected by the famine are still trying to recover from it today. They cannot get back on their feet because of a failed economy and weak political system, which is what al-Shabab has fed on and used as their door into power. The Image to the right clearly shows how hard Somalia was hit with this drought, and how serious the situation was. (eLocal, 11)
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The Somali Parliament
Al-Shabab also manages to stay in control over Somalia because of a lack of opposition from Somalia’s government. Somalia’s government does not have power because they only recently had legal right to power. In 2006 when the Islamic Courts Union discussed the Transitional Government and put it into effect, it did not centralize the federal power immediately but rather over time. As discussed previously, this opened the door for al-Shabab and they rose to power. When the Transitional Government went into effect in 2012, it was a little late for the new Somali Parliament to send the message to al-Shabab that they were no longer in charge because of years under al-Shabab’s rule. While the Somali government is the official ruling party in Somalia, the short and weak extent of their reign is all too well-known, making al-Shabab the real government of Somalia. Somalia’s Parliament does not have a military, which is another reason why al-Shabab is easily in control. This also extends to why Somalia’s police system is corrupt and under the finger of al-Shabab themselves. (CultureGrams, 16)
AMISOM
Al-Shabab also remains in power because of an overwhelmed and underfunded AMISOM, which because of those two factors has been unable to successfully oppose al-Shabab. Because Somalia does not have an official military, AMISOM acts as their unofficial military. AMISOM is the peacekeeping group who was started in order to oppose al-Shabab in 2005. AMISOM was not supposed to be in Somalia nearly as long as it has been, but because they are underfunded and don’t have what they need to beat al-Shabab they were unable to defeat them. Also, because it would be seen as inhumane if they left Somalia in the current state it is in, they are essentially trapped in Somalia. Back in December, al-Shabab attacked a port in order to target the security that would be protecting the government officials being elected. Leading up to this, they had hunted down and assassinated many former members of their Parliament, which is also weakening their government, as many people are afraid to step up and fix Somalia from the inside. The factors playing into al-Shabab’s dominance over Somalia are mostly short-term, but have also been partially caused by pre-existing crises which have set them up to take over Somalia. (Williams, 16)
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